A Comprehensive Analysis of Factors Affecting Paddy Production in Malaysia

Abstract

This study comprehensively investigates the multifaceted factors influencing paddy production in Malaysia, a sector critical for national food security and rural livelihoods. Employing a log-linear regression model on secondary data from 1991 to 2022, the research quantitatively assesses the impact of area harvested, fertilizer consumption, temperature, and rainfall, alongside lagged production and specific historical events. Findings reveal that area harvested, and fertilizer consumption positively and significantly impact paddy production, with coefficients of 0.75 and 0.19, respectively. Conversely, temperature exerts a significant negative influence, with a 1% increase leading to a 0.45% reduction in production. Rainfall, while crucial, did not exhibit direct statistical significance in the aggregated model, suggesting complex underlying dynamics. Dummy variables effectively capture the disruptive effects of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 2006 policy shifts, as well as the positive impact of the 2009 recovery and government interventions. Beyond these quantitative determinants, the study integrates insights from broader literature, highlighting critical socio-economic factors, technological adoption barriers, and governance challenges. Diagnostic tests confirm the model's reliability. The report underscores the urgent need for integrated policies that protect agricultural land, optimize input use, enhance climate resilience, strengthen farmer support, and accelerate sustainable technology adoption to bridge the existing productivity gap and ensure Malaysia's long-term food security.